THE PICK
SD San Diego PadresAWAY · 1488 ELO
@ Atlanta BravesHOME · 1528 ELO ATL
40.8% WIN PROBABILITY 59.2%
The model makes Atlanta Braves a 59.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 59.2% edge still loses 40.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
5 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
59.2% Atlanta Braves ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.4% Atlanta Braves ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.2% Atlanta Braves ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.9% Atlanta Braves ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.7% Atlanta Braves OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 40 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
79°F DEW 73°F HUM 83% WIND 2 MPH CLOUD 100% 975 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
SD REST 0D ATL REST 0D SD TRAVELED 660 MI
The numbers
AWAY
San Diego Padres ELO RATING1488
RANK#21
RECORD48-48
LAST 105-5
STREAKW2
HOME
Atlanta Braves ELO RATING1528
RANK#4
RECORD55-40
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Atlanta Braves getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 40 points plus home advantage at Truist Park produces
the 59.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
San Diego Padres come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.