THE PICK
PIT Pittsburgh PiratesAWAY · 1517 ELO
@ Cleveland GuardiansHOME · 1509 ELO CLE
47.8% WIN PROBABILITY 52.2%
The model makes Cleveland Guardians a 52.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 52.2% edge still loses 47.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
9 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
52.2% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.2% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% Cleveland Guardians OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 8 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Jared Jones FIP 3.67 · ERA 4.37 · 35 IP
Gavin Williams FIP 3.74 · ERA 3.81 · 113.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
81°F DEW 62°F HUM 53% WIND 4 MPH CLOUD 28% 991 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
PIT REST 4D CLE REST 4D PIT TRAVELED 114 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH VARIANCE
The numbers
AWAY
Pittsburgh Pirates ELO RATING1517
RANK#10
RECORD50-47
LAST 107-3
STREAKW3
HOME
Cleveland Guardians ELO RATING1509
RANK#12
RECORD51-46
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Cleveland Guardians getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 8 points plus home advantage at Progressive Field produces
the 52.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Pittsburgh Pirates come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.