THE PICK
MIN Minnesota TwinsAWAY · 1499 ELO
@ Cleveland GuardiansHOME · 1509 ELO CLE
45.4% WIN PROBABILITY 54.6%
The model makes Cleveland Guardians a 54.6% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 54.6% edge still loses 45.4 times in 100.
Prediction history
10 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
54.6% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.2% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.8% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.1% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.5% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.8% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.5% Cleveland Guardians ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Cleveland Guardians ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.3% Cleveland Guardians OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 10 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
79°F DEW 69°F HUM 73% WIND 11 MPH GUSTS 21 MPH CLOUD 19% RAIN 66% 980 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
MIN REST 0D CLE REST 0D MIN TRAVELED 0 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
IN THE NUMBER
WXRAIN VARIANCE
The numbers
AWAY
Minnesota Twins ELO RATING1499
RANK#18
RECORD48-49
LAST 107-3
STREAKW2
HOME
Cleveland Guardians ELO RATING1509
RANK#12
RECORD51-46
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Cleveland Guardians getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 10 points plus home advantage at Progressive Field produces
the 54.6% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Minnesota Twins come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.