THE PICK
LA Los Angeles SparksAWAY · 1415 ELO
@ Chicago SkyHOME · 1401 ELO CHI
40.7% WIN PROBABILITY 59.3%
The model makes Chicago Sky a 59.3% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 59.3% edge still loses 40.7 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
59.3% Chicago Sky ▲ +0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
58.5% Chicago Sky ▲ +2.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.0% Chicago Sky ▲ +3.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.7% Chicago Sky ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.4% Chicago Sky ▼ -8.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
61.5% Chicago Sky OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 14 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
LA REST 1D CHI REST 1D LA TRAVELED 357 MI
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
LA Cameron Brink OUTKelsey Plum OUT
CHI Maddy Westbeld OUTChloe Bibby OUTSkylar Diggins OUTDiJonai Carrington OUT
The numbers
What could break the pick
Los Angeles Sparks are 3-7 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.