The marquee duel didn’t survive the morning. Paul Skenes against Jacob Misiorowski was supposed to headline MLB Sunday Leadoff on Peacock — the reigning NL Cy Young winner against the kid who out-pitched him the first time they met. Instead, arm fatigue scratched Misiorowski Sunday, and the Brewers say he’ll also miss Tuesday’s All-Star Game in Philadelphia. Robert Gasser gets the ball for Milwaukee at noon ET at PNC Park instead.
That first Skenes-Misiorowski meeting is still lore worth knowing — in June 2025, Misiorowski’s third career start, he threw five scoreless and struck out eight as Milwaukee beat Skenes and the Pirates 4-2, per MLB.com — but the rematch waits for another day. Today’s game is Skenes against a much shorter Gasser résumé: 43.1 innings, a 4.15 ERA and 4.91 FIP.
What The Call sees
The Call has Milwaukee favored, but only by a thin lean now that Gasser has replaced Misiorowski on the mound. The team gap still does the heavy lifting: Milwaukee is No. 1 on our Elo board and the Brewers are the best record in baseball, while Pittsburgh sits mid-pack. But the pitching factor that used to be a wash — two elite arms canceling out — is now a real edge for Pittsburgh. Skenes’ 2.98 FIP against Gasser’s 4.91 pulls the number back toward the Pirates, which is why this one grades as a lean instead of the comfortable favorite it looked like with Misiorowski on the card.
The model’s claim, in plain terms: Milwaukee’s overall team strength still outweighs today’s pitching mismatch — but just barely.
What could break the pick
Skenes at home, coming off a canceled marquee assignment, has every incentive to make Sunday count regardless of who’s in the other dugout. His floor is seven innings of one-run ball, and against a Brewers lineup facing a shorter, less-tested arm behind Skenes than expected, the Pirates’ path here is more straightforward than the original Skenes-Misiorowski framing suggested. A lean-confidence pick is thin cover in a game where the Pirates’ ace just got an easier matchup handed to him.
There’s also the weekend context: Saturday’s doubleheader precedes this, and whichever bullpen worked harder Saturday inherits a Sunday game where the first reliever in might face the highest-leverage at-bat of the series. If Milwaukee spent its pen winning two the day before, Pittsburgh’s path gets real.
If you’re making the trip
A marquee Sunday Leadoff start means a noon first pitch — stay downtown, walk the Clemente Bridge at 10:30 a.m. with the crowd, and you’re in your seat for warmups. Our PNC Park guide has the where-to-book call for both sides of the river.
