PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates

PNC Park · Pittsburgh, PA

THE CALL — GRADED

MIL Milwaukee BrewersAWAY · 1559 ELO
@
Pittsburgh PiratesHOME · 1517 ELO PIT
52.3% WIN PROBABILITY 47.7%

Final: Milwaukee Brewers 5, Pittsburgh Pirates 14. The Call had Milwaukee Brewers at 52.3% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Milwaukee Brewers581
Pittsburgh Pirates14150
W Paul Skenes L Robert Gasser

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

52.3% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -3.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
55.5% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.0% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.6% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +1.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
55.6% Milwaukee Brewers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 42 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Milwaukee Brewers
ELO RATING1559
RANK#1
RECORD59-37
LAST 105-5
STREAKL3

HOME

Pittsburgh Pirates
ELO RATING1517
RANK#10
RECORD50-47
LAST 107-3
STREAKW3

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Pittsburgh Pirates getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 42 points plus home advantage at PNC Park produces the 52.3% call. Full methodology →