The Minnesota Lynx are missing the player most people would put on their MVP ballot, and our model shrugs. Napheesa Collier has been out since ankle surgeries in January and March, and The Call still has Minnesota as an 89.3% favorite tonight — not because the model is ignoring her absence, but because the gap between these two teams was never close to needing her.
What The Call sees
The Call gives Minnesota 89.3% at home, a “strong” read and the most lopsided number on tonight’s board. The Elo spread is enormous: Lynx 1709 (2nd) to Sparks 1421 (9th), a 288-point gap, and the form split is just as stark — Minnesota is 7-3 over its last ten on a three-game winning streak (20-6 overall), while LA is 4-6 and coming off a loss (11-12). No situational factor moved this number at all — rest is even at a day apiece, and nothing about travel or the divisional matchup cleared the bar for an adjustment. This is a rare case where the raw rating and record gap is the entire story; the model didn’t need to reach for anything else.
What could break the pick
Los Angeles is shorthanded in a way that makes a 288-point gap even harder to close. Kelsey Plum is out with a lower-left-leg injury that initial reporting has keeping her out until at least late July — a second setback for her this season and one that will cost her the All-Star Game on the 25th. Cameron Brink is also out with a left ankle issue serious enough that a re-evaluation date doesn’t guarantee an imminent return. That’s two of LA’s most important perimeter and interior pieces both off the floor on the road against the league’s best home record.
Minnesota’s own injury news works the other direction. Emma Cechova is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL suffered during a recent win over Dallas — a real loss for Lynx depth — but Collier’s steady practice progression is the one to watch. She’s a full participant again as of July 1 and reportedly nearing a season debut; if that lands on a home date this month, Minnesota’s ceiling goes up from a number that’s already this lopsided.
The trip
Target Center sits in downtown Minneapolis, connected to the skyway system that lets fans move between hotels, restaurants and the arena without stepping outside — a real advantage if the weather turns. It’s an easy one to build a weekend around given how deep this Lynx roster still is even missing its best player. Full transit, parking and neighborhood detail is in our Target Center guide.
