THE PICK
WSH Washington NationalsAWAY · 1496 ELO
@ AthleticsHOME · 1440 ELO ATH
56.8% WIN PROBABILITY 43.2%
The model makes Washington Nationals a 56.8% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 56.8% edge still loses 43.2 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
56.8% Washington Nationals ▲ +2.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.5% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.9% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.7% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.4% Washington Nationals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 56 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Foster Griffin FIP 4.02 · ERA 2.77 · 110.1 IP
Jacob Lopez FIP 5.97 · ERA 6.83 · 55.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
96°F DEW 36°F HUM 12% WIND 3 MPH CLOUD 70% 1008 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
WSH REST 0D ATH REST 0D WSH TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -16 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Athletics are 1-9 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.