THE PICK
WSH Washington NationalsAWAY · 1496 ELO
@ AthleticsHOME · 1440 ELO ATH
52.7% WIN PROBABILITY 47.3%
The model makes Washington Nationals a 52.7% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 52.7% edge still loses 47.3 times in 100.
Prediction history
11 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
52.7% Washington Nationals ▼ -1.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.3% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.5% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.8% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.2% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.7% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.4% Washington Nationals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 56 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Zack Littell FIP 6.09 · ERA 4.90 · 90 IP
J.T. Ginn FIP 4.45 · ERA 3.67 · 103 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
79°F DEW 47°F HUM 33% WIND 10 MPH CLOUD 0% 1012 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
WSH REST 0D ATH REST 0D WSH TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +13 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Athletics are 1-9 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.