THE PICK
WSH Washington NationalsAWAY · 1496 ELO
@ AthleticsHOME · 1440 ELO ATH
54.7% WIN PROBABILITY 45.3%
The model makes Washington Nationals a 54.7% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 54.7% edge still loses 45.3 times in 100.
Prediction history
8 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
54.7% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.3% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.5% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.9% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.7% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.4% Washington Nationals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 56 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Cade Cavalli FIP 3.26 · ERA 3.83 · 98.2 IP
Gage Jump FIP 3.30 · ERA 3.51 · 48.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
83°F DEW 46°F HUM 28% WIND 12 MPH CLOUD 0% 1010 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
WSH REST 4D ATH REST 4D WSH TRAVELED 2375 MI WSH CROSSED 3 TIME ZONES INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH VARIANCE
The numbers
What could break the pick
Athletics are 1-9 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.