Toronto FC at New England Revolution Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

TOR Toronto FCAWAY · 1448 ELO

New England RevolutionHOME · 1517 ELO NE

31.1% WIN PROBABILITY 68.9%

The model makes New England Revolution a 68.9% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 68.9% edge still loses 31.1 times in 100.

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

68.9% New England Revolution ▼ -0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

69.3% New England Revolution OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 69 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

72°F DEW 70°F HUM 95% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 45% RAIN 46% 994 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

TOR REST 5D NE REST 59D TOR TRAVELED 265 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

IN THE NUMBER

REST +9 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

Toronto FC

ELO RATING1448

RANK#25

RECORD3-6-6

LAST 101-5-4

STREAKD1

HOME

New England Revolution

ELO RATING1517

RANK#8

RECORD8-1-5

LAST 107-1-2

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with New England Revolution getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 69 points plus home advantage at Gillette Stadium produces the 68.9% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Toronto FC are 1-5-4 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.