PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✓ RESULT

Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

Petco Park · San Diego, CA

THE CALL — GRADED

TOR Toronto Blue JaysAWAY · 1485 ELO
@
San Diego PadresHOME · 1488 ELO SD
49.4% WIN PROBABILITY 50.6%

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 4, San Diego Padres 5. The Call had San Diego Padres at 50.6% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Toronto Blue Jays491
San Diego Padres570
W Adrian Morejon L Jeff Hoffman SV Mason Miller

Prediction history

4 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

50.6% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.2% San Diego Padres ▼ -2.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.7% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 3 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Toronto Blue Jays
ELO RATING1485
RANK#22
RECORD45-51
LAST 105-5
STREAKL2

HOME

San Diego Padres
ELO RATING1488
RANK#21
RECORD48-48
LAST 105-5
STREAKW2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with San Diego Padres getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 3 points plus home advantage at Petco Park produces the 50.6% call. Full methodology →