Toronto Blue Jays 7, San Diego Padres 8 — July 11, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

TOR Toronto Blue JaysAWAY · 1485 ELO

San Diego PadresHOME · 1488 ELO SD

47.4% WIN PROBABILITY 52.6%

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 7, San Diego Padres 8. The Call had San Diego Padres at 52.6% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

	R	H	E
Toronto Blue Jays	7	8	0
San Diego Padres	8	8	1

W Bradgley Rodriguez L Mason Fluharty SV Mason Miller

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

52.6% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.3

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

52.9% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.8

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

53.7% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 3 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Toronto Blue Jays

ELO RATING1485

RANK#22

RECORD45-51

LAST 105-5

STREAKL2

HOME

San Diego Padres

ELO RATING1488

RANK#21

RECORD48-48

LAST 105-5

STREAKW2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with San Diego Padres getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 3 points plus home advantage at Petco Park produces the 52.6% call. Full methodology →