PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 10, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Toronto Blue Jays at San Diego Padres

Petco Park · San Diego, CA

THE CALL — GRADED

TOR Toronto Blue JaysAWAY · 1485 ELO
@
San Diego PadresHOME · 1488 ELO SD
46.3% WIN PROBABILITY 53.7%

Final: Toronto Blue Jays 5, San Diego Padres 3. The Call had San Diego Padres at 53.7% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Toronto Blue Jays590
San Diego Padres3100
W Mason Fluharty L JP Sears SV Louis Varland

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN
53.7% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 3 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Toronto Blue Jays
ELO RATING1485
RANK#22
RECORD45-51
LAST 105-5
STREAKL2

HOME

San Diego Padres
ELO RATING1488
RANK#21
RECORD48-48
LAST 105-5
STREAKW2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with San Diego Padres getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 3 points plus home advantage at Petco Park produces the 53.7% call. Full methodology →