THE PICK
TB Tampa Bay RaysAWAY · 1518 ELO
@ Boston Red SoxHOME · 1532 ELO BOS
44.9% WIN PROBABILITY 55.1%
The model makes Boston Red Sox a 55.1% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 55.1% edge still loses 44.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
12 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
55.1% Boston Red Sox ▲ +1.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.5% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.6% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.6% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.7% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.1% Boston Red Sox ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Boston Red Sox ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.0% Boston Red Sox OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 14 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Shane McClanahan FIP 3.15 · ERA 2.83 · 86 IP
Sonny Gray FIP 3.53 · ERA 2.54 · 95.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
82°F DEW 46°F HUM 28% WIND 13 MPH CLOUD 0% 1005 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
TB REST 0D BOS REST 0D TB TRAVELED 0 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -3 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Tampa Bay Rays are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.