THE PICK
STL St. Louis CardinalsAWAY · 1508 ELO
@ Arizona DiamondbacksHOME · 1505 ELO ARI
48.7% WIN PROBABILITY 51.3%
The model makes Arizona Diamondbacks a 51.3% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 51.3% edge still loses 48.7 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.3% Arizona Diamondbacks ▼ -1.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.4% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.2% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.0% Arizona Diamondbacks OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 3 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Dustin May FIP 3.26 · ERA 4.55 · 93 IP
Brandon Pfaadt FIP 4.68 · ERA 4.70 · 53.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · DAY GAME
91°F DEW 70°F HUM 50% WIND 5 MPH CLOUD 33% 975 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
STL REST 0D ARI REST 0D STL TRAVELED 0 MI
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -11 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
St. Louis Cardinals are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.