THE PICK
STL St. Louis CardinalsAWAY · 1508 ELO
@ Arizona DiamondbacksHOME · 1505 ELO ARI
49.1% WIN PROBABILITY 50.9%
The model makes Arizona Diamondbacks a 50.9% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 50.9% edge still loses 49.1 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.9% Arizona Diamondbacks ▼ -2.0
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.9% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.4% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.2% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% Arizona Diamondbacks ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.0% Arizona Diamondbacks OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 3 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Michael McGreevy FIP 4.14 · ERA 3.01 · 101.2 IP
Merrill Kelly FIP 5.90 · ERA 5.38 · 93.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
90°F DEW 65°F HUM 43% WIND 3 MPH CLOUD 44% 972 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
STL REST 4D ARI REST 4D STL TRAVELED 1270 MI STL CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -14 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
St. Louis Cardinals are 4-6 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.