Sporting Kansas City 2, St. Louis City SC 3 — July 16, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

SKC Sporting Kansas CityAWAY · 1413 ELO

St. Louis City SCHOME · 1503 ELO STL

31.2% WIN PROBABILITY 68.8%

Final: Sporting Kansas City 2, St. Louis City SC 3. The Call had St. Louis City SC at 68.8% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

68.8% St. Louis City SC OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 90 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Sporting Kansas City

ELO RATING1413

RANK#30

RECORD3-2-10

LAST 102-1-7

STREAKL2

HOME

St. Louis City SC

ELO RATING1503

RANK#13

RECORD5-4-6

LAST 104-3-3

STREAKW2

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with St. Louis City SC getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 90 points plus home advantage at Energizer Park produces the 68.8% call. Full methodology →