Seattle Storm at Indiana Fever Prediction — July 17, 2026

THE PICK

SEA Seattle StormAWAY · 1354 ELO

Indiana FeverHOME · 1595 ELO IND

13.6% WIN PROBABILITY 86.4%

The model makes Indiana Fever a 86.4% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 86.4% edge still loses 13.6 times in 100.

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

86.4% Indiana Fever ▼ -2.2

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

88.6% Indiana Fever ▲ +1.1

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

87.5% Indiana Fever ▲ +5.2

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

82.3% Indiana Fever ▲ +1.0

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

81.3% Indiana Fever OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 241 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS

INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

SEA REST 1D IND REST 1D SEA TRAVELED 163 MI

AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER

SEA Taina Mair OUT

IND Caitlin Clark OUT

The numbers

AWAY

Seattle Storm

ELO RATING1354

RANK#15

RECORD7-21

LAST 103-7

STREAKL3

HOME

Indiana Fever

ELO RATING1595

RANK#4

RECORD15-11

LAST 105-5

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Indiana Fever getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 241 points plus home advantage at Gainbridge Fieldhouse produces the 86.4% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Seattle Storm are 3-7 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.