PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, FL

THE CALL — GRADED

SEA Seattle MarinersAWAY · 1502 ELO
@
Tampa Bay RaysHOME · 1518 ELO TB
42.0% WIN PROBABILITY 58.0%

Final: Seattle Mariners 8, Tampa Bay Rays 2. The Call had Tampa Bay Rays at 58.0% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Seattle Mariners890
Tampa Bay Rays242
W José A. Ferrer L Ian Seymour

Prediction history

4 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

58.0% Tampa Bay Rays ▲ +1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.9% Tampa Bay Rays ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.1% Tampa Bay Rays ▲ +1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
56.0% Tampa Bay Rays OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 16 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Seattle Mariners
ELO RATING1502
RANK#16
RECORD48-49
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1

HOME

Tampa Bay Rays
ELO RATING1518
RANK#9
RECORD56-39
LAST 104-6
STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Tampa Bay Rays getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 16 points plus home advantage at Tropicana Field produces the 58.0% call. Full methodology →