THE PICK
SF San Francisco GiantsAWAY · 1471 ELO
@ Kansas City RoyalsHOME · 1452 ELO KC
49.4% WIN PROBABILITY 50.6%
The model makes Kansas City Royals a 50.6% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 50.6% edge still loses 49.4 times in 100.
Prediction history
17 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
50.6% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Kansas City Royals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.6% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Kansas City Royals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.6% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Kansas City Royals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.6% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.7% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.1% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% Kansas City Royals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.5% Kansas City Royals ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.4% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.9% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.2% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.5% Kansas City Royals ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.6% Kansas City Royals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 19 points at open.
The factors
2 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
94°F DEW 70°F HUM 46% WIND 15 MPH GUSTS 26 MPH CLOUD 2% 975 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
SF REST 0D KC REST 0D SF TRAVELED 1509 MI SF CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
WXWIND VARIANCEWINDOUT VARIANCE
The numbers
AWAY
San Francisco Giants ELO RATING1471
RANK#24
RECORD41-55
LAST 105-5
STREAKW2
HOME
Kansas City Royals ELO RATING1452
RANK#29
RECORD38-59
LAST 103-7
STREAKL5
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Kansas City Royals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 19 points plus home advantage at Kauffman Stadium produces
the 50.6% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
San Francisco Giants come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.