THE PICK
SD San Diego PadresAWAY · 1488 ELO
@ Kansas City RoyalsHOME · 1452 ELO KC
48.9% WIN PROBABILITY 51.1%
The model makes Kansas City Royals a 51.1% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 51.1% edge still loses 48.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.1% Kansas City Royals ▲ +2.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.4% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.8% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.1% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.2% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 36 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Germán Márquez FIP 6.39 · ERA 5.18 · 41.2 IP
Noah Cameron FIP 4.03 · ERA 4.89 · 95.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
94°F DEW 70°F HUM 47% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 7% 982 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
SD REST 0D KC REST 0D SD TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +19 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
San Diego Padres ELO RATING1488
RANK#21
RECORD48-48
LAST 105-5
STREAKW2
HOME
Kansas City Royals ELO RATING1452
RANK#29
RECORD38-59
LAST 103-7
STREAKL5
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Kansas City Royals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 36 points plus home advantage at Kauffman Stadium produces
the 51.1% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
San Diego Padres come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.