THE PICK
SD San Diego PadresAWAY · 1488 ELO
@ Kansas City RoyalsHOME · 1452 ELO KC
51.7% WIN PROBABILITY 48.3%
The model makes San Diego Padres a 51.7% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 51.7% edge still loses 48.3 times in 100.
Prediction history
8 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
51.7% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.6% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.4% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.8% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.1% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
50.2% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 36 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
94°F DEW 66°F HUM 40% WIND 6 MPH CLOUD 41% 983 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
SD REST 0D KC REST 0D SD TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
The numbers
What could break the pick
Kansas City Royals are 3-7 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.