THE PICK
SD San Diego PadresAWAY · 1488 ELO
@ Kansas City RoyalsHOME · 1452 ELO KC
52.1% WIN PROBABILITY 47.9%
The model makes San Diego Padres a 52.1% favorite — even playing on the road. One game is one game: a 52.1% edge still loses 47.9 times in 100.
Prediction history
6 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
52.1% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.7% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.4% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.9% San Diego Padres ▲ +0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.1% San Diego Padres ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
50.2% San Diego Padres OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 36 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBEREverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Michael King FIP 4.01 · ERA 3.41 · 108.1 IP
Seth Lugo FIP 4.38 · ERA 4.56 · 104.2 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
87°F DEW 67°F HUM 53% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 2% 985 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
SD REST 4D KC REST 4D SD TRAVELED 1339 MI SD CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH -3 ELO
The numbers
What could break the pick
Kansas City Royals are 3-7 over their last ten. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.