San Diego FC at Colorado Rapids Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

SD San Diego FCAWAY · 1487 ELO

Colorado RapidsHOME · 1486 ELO COL

41.5% WIN PROBABILITY 58.5%

The model makes Colorado Rapids a 58.5% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 58.5% edge still loses 41.5 times in 100.

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

58.5% Colorado Rapids ▲ +0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

58.1% Colorado Rapids ▼ -0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

58.5% Colorado Rapids ▲ +0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

58.1% Colorado Rapids ▼ -0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

58.5% Colorado Rapids OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 1 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

75°F DEW 61°F HUM 62% WIND 14 MPH CLOUD 70% RAIN 53% 843 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

SD REST 59D COL REST 59D SD TRAVELED 835 MI SD CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

The numbers

AWAY

San Diego FC

ELO RATING1487

RANK#19

RECORD4-5-6

LAST 101-3-6

STREAKL1

HOME

Colorado Rapids

ELO RATING1486

RANK#20

RECORD5-1-9

LAST 102-1-7

STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Colorado Rapids getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 1 points plus home advantage at Dick's Sporting Goods Park produces the 58.5% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

San Diego FC are 1-3-6 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.