Portland Timbers 5, Seattle Sounders FC 1 — July 16, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

POR Portland TimbersAWAY · 1493 ELO

Seattle Sounders FCHOME · 1493 ELO SEA

32.5% WIN PROBABILITY 67.5%

Final: Portland Timbers 5, Seattle Sounders FC 1. The Call had Seattle Sounders FC at 67.5% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

2 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

67.5% Seattle Sounders FC ▼ -0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

67.9% Seattle Sounders FC OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 0 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Portland Timbers

ELO RATING1493

RANK#18

RECORD5-2-8

LAST 104-1-5

STREAKW1

HOME

Seattle Sounders FC

ELO RATING1493

RANK#17

RECORD7-3-4

LAST 104-3-3

STREAKL3

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Seattle Sounders FC getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 0 points plus home advantage at Lumen Field produces the 67.5% call. Full methodology →