Portland Fire 75, Washington Mystics 56 — July 16, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

POR Portland FireAWAY · 1449 ELO

Washington MysticsHOME · 1460 ELO WSH

19.9% WIN PROBABILITY 80.1%

Final: Portland Fire 75, Washington Mystics 56. The Call had Washington Mystics at 80.1% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

80.1% Washington Mystics ▲ +3.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

76.5% Washington Mystics ▲ +1.9

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

74.6% Washington Mystics ▲ +1.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

73.2% Washington Mystics ▼ -6.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

79.8% Washington Mystics OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 11 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Portland Fire

ELO RATING1449

RANK#9

RECORD11-16

LAST 104-6

STREAKW1

HOME

Washington Mystics

ELO RATING1460

RANK#8

RECORD13-12

LAST 106-4

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Washington Mystics getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 11 points plus home advantage at CareFirst Arena produces the 80.1% call. Full methodology →