THE PICK
POR Portland FireAWAY · 1449 ELO
@ Minnesota LynxHOME · 1715 ELO MIN
11.8% WIN PROBABILITY 88.2%
The model makes Minnesota Lynx a 88.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 88.2% edge still loses 11.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
8 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
88.2% Minnesota Lynx ▼ -3.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
92.0% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
91.7% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
90.9% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
90.8% Minnesota Lynx ▼ -2.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
93.4% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
93.0% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
92.9% Minnesota Lynx OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 266 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
POR REST 1D MIN REST 2D POR TRAVELED 936 MI POR CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
POR Sarah Ashlee Barker OUTKarlie Samuelson DAY-TO-DAYSania Feagin OUT
MIN Napheesa Collier OUTEmma Cechova OUT
IN THE NUMBER
REST +3 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Portland Fire ELO RATING1449
RANK#9
RECORD11-16
LAST 104-6
STREAKW1
HOME
Minnesota Lynx ELO RATING1715
RANK#2
RECORD21-6
LAST 107-3
STREAKW4
Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Minnesota Lynx getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 266 points plus home advantage at Target Center produces
the 88.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Portland Fire come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.