Portland Fire 87, Connecticut Sun 90 — July 14, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

POR Portland FireAWAY · 1449 ELO

Connecticut SunHOME · 1355 ELO CON

45.9% WIN PROBABILITY 54.1%

Final: Portland Fire 87, Connecticut Sun 90. The Call had Connecticut Sun at 54.1% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

4 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

54.1% Connecticut Sun ▼ -8.8

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

62.9% Connecticut Sun ▲ +0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

62.5% Connecticut Sun ▼ -1.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

64.1% Connecticut Sun OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 94 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Portland Fire

ELO RATING1449

RANK#9

RECORD11-16

LAST 104-6

STREAKW1

HOME

Connecticut Sun

ELO RATING1355

RANK#14

RECORD7-19

LAST 104-6

STREAKW1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Connecticut Sun getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 94 points plus home advantage at Mohegan Sun Arena produces the 54.1% call. Full methodology →