Portland Fire 102, Atlanta Dream 92 — July 11, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

POR Portland FireAWAY · 1449 ELO

Atlanta DreamHOME · 1481 ELO ATL

17.1% WIN PROBABILITY 82.9%

Final: Portland Fire 102, Atlanta Dream 92. The Call had Atlanta Dream at 82.9% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

82.9% Atlanta Dream OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 32 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Portland Fire

ELO RATING1449

RANK#9

RECORD11-16

LAST 104-6

STREAKW1

HOME

Atlanta Dream

ELO RATING1481

RANK#7

RECORD15-11

LAST 104-6

STREAKW1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Atlanta Dream getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 32 points plus home advantage at Gateway Center Arena produces the 82.9% call. Full methodology →