PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 22, 2026 ● LIVE

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · New York, NY

THE PICK

PIT Pittsburgh PiratesAWAY · 1517 ELO
@
New York YankeesHOME · 1524 ELO NYY
45.6% WIN PROBABILITY 54.4%

The model makes New York Yankees a 54.4% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 54.4% edge still loses 45.6 times in 100.

Prediction history

7 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.2% New York Yankees ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.2% New York Yankees ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% New York Yankees ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
54.9% New York Yankees OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 7 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME

85°F DEW 70°F HUM 61% WIND 12 MPH CLOUD 97% RAIN 40% 1002 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

PIT REST 0D NYY REST 0D PIT TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE

The numbers

AWAY

Pittsburgh Pirates
ELO RATING1517
RANK#10
RECORD50-47
LAST 107-3
STREAKW3

HOME

New York Yankees
ELO RATING1524
RANK#6
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with New York Yankees getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 7 points plus home advantage at Yankee Stadium produces the 54.4% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Pittsburgh Pirates come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.