THE PICK
PIT Pittsburgh PiratesAWAY · 1517 ELO
@ New York YankeesHOME · 1524 ELO NYY
45.8% WIN PROBABILITY 54.2%
The model makes New York Yankees a 54.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 54.2% edge still loses 45.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
10 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
54.2% New York Yankees ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
53.9% New York Yankees ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.1% New York Yankees ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.1% New York Yankees ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.0% New York Yankees ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.9% New York Yankees ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.8% New York Yankees ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
55.1% New York Yankees OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 7 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME
76°F DEW 72°F HUM 86% WIND 7 MPH CLOUD 100% RAIN 57% 1005 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
PIT REST 0D NYY REST 0D PIT TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
WXRAIN VARIANCE
The numbers
AWAY
Pittsburgh Pirates ELO RATING1517
RANK#10
RECORD50-47
LAST 107-3
STREAKW3
HOME
New York Yankees ELO RATING1524
RANK#6
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with New York Yankees getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 7 points plus home advantage at Yankee Stadium produces
the 54.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Pittsburgh Pirates come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.