The Call MLB · JULY 20, 2026 ● LIVE

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium · New York, NY

THE PICK

PIT Pittsburgh PiratesAWAY · 1517 ELO

@

New York YankeesHOME · 1524 ELO NYY

45.6% WIN PROBABILITY 54.4%

The model makes New York Yankees a 54.4% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 54.4% edge still loses 45.6 times in 100.

Prediction history

6 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

54.4% New York Yankees ▲ +0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

54.0% New York Yankees ▼ -0.9

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

54.9% New York Yankees ▲ +0.1

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

54.8% New York Yankees ▼ -0.3

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

55.1% New York Yankees ▲ +0.4

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

54.7% New York Yankees OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 7 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

77°F DEW 53°F HUM 44% WIND 12 MPH CLOUD 2% 1014 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

PIT REST 0D NYY REST 0D PIT TRAVELED 406 MI INTERLEAGUE

The numbers

AWAY

Pittsburgh Pirates

ELO RATING1517

RANK#10

RECORD50-47

LAST 107-3

STREAKW3

HOME

New York Yankees

ELO RATING1524

RANK#6

RECORD54-42

LAST 106-4

STREAKW4

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with New York Yankees getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 7 points plus home advantage at Yankee Stadium produces the 54.4% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Pittsburgh Pirates come in hot on a 3-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.