Phoenix Mercury 100, Minnesota Lynx 104 — July 13, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

PHX Phoenix MercuryAWAY · 1384 ELO

Minnesota LynxHOME · 1715 ELO MIN

9.2% WIN PROBABILITY 90.8%

Final: Phoenix Mercury 100, Minnesota Lynx 104. The Call had Minnesota Lynx at 90.8% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

90.8% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.9

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

89.9% Minnesota Lynx ▲ +0.6

Ratings shifted on the latest results run.

OPEN

89.3% Minnesota Lynx OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 331 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Phoenix Mercury

ELO RATING1384

RANK#12

RECORD9-17

LAST 104-6

STREAKL4

HOME

Minnesota Lynx

ELO RATING1715

RANK#2

RECORD21-6

LAST 107-3

STREAKW4

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Minnesota Lynx getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 331 points plus home advantage at Target Center produces the 90.8% call. Full methodology →