THE PICK
PHX Phoenix MercuryAWAY · 1384 ELO
@ Los Angeles SparksHOME · 1415 ELO LA
34.6% WIN PROBABILITY 65.4%
The model makes Los Angeles Sparks a 65.4% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 65.4% edge still loses 34.6 times in 100.
Prediction history
4 UPDATESEvery time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
65.4% Los Angeles Sparks ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.2% Los Angeles Sparks ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
65.7% Los Angeles Sparks ▼ -2.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
68.6% Los Angeles Sparks OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 31 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLYEverything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS
INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
PHX REST 2D LA REST 2D PHX TRAVELED 359 MI PHX CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER
PHX Sami Whitcomb DAY-TO-DAYNatasha Mack OUTJovana Nogic OUT
LA Cameron Brink OUTKelsey Plum OUT
The numbers
What could break the pick
Phoenix Mercury are 4-6 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.