Phoenix Mercury 58, Las Vegas Aces 106 — July 11, 2026

THE CALL — GRADED

PHX Phoenix MercuryAWAY · 1384 ELO

Las Vegas AcesHOME · 1535 ELO LV

18.0% WIN PROBABILITY 82.0%

Final: Phoenix Mercury 58, Las Vegas Aces 106. The Call had Las Vegas Aces at 82.0% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

82.0% Las Vegas Aces OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 151 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Phoenix Mercury

ELO RATING1384

RANK#12

RECORD9-17

LAST 104-6

STREAKL4

HOME

Las Vegas Aces

ELO RATING1535

RANK#6

RECORD17-9

LAST 106-4

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Las Vegas Aces getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 151 points plus home advantage at Michelob Ultra Arena produces the 82.0% call. Full methodology →