PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✗ RESULT

Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Detroit, MI

THE CALL — GRADED

PHI Philadelphia PhilliesAWAY · 1512 ELO
@
Detroit TigersHOME · 1508 ELO DET
45.5% WIN PROBABILITY 54.5%

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 4, Detroit Tigers 2. The Call had Detroit Tigers at 54.5% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Philadelphia Phillies470
Detroit Tigers2101
W Cristopher Sánchez L Casey Mize SV Jhoan Duran

Prediction history

3 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

54.5% Detroit Tigers ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Detroit Tigers ▲ +1.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
53.1% Detroit Tigers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 4 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Philadelphia Phillies
ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1

HOME

Detroit Tigers
ELO RATING1508
RANK#14
RECORD44-52
LAST 107-3
STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Detroit Tigers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 4 points plus home advantage at Comerica Park produces the 54.5% call. Full methodology →