PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 10, 2026 ✓ RESULT

Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers

Comerica Park · Detroit, MI

THE CALL — GRADED

PHI Philadelphia PhilliesAWAY · 1512 ELO
@
Detroit TigersHOME · 1508 ELO DET
46.9% WIN PROBABILITY 53.1%

Final: Philadelphia Phillies 2, Detroit Tigers 10. The Call had Detroit Tigers at 53.1% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
Philadelphia Phillies241
Detroit Tigers1081
W Jack Flaherty L Tim Mayza

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN
53.1% Detroit Tigers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 4 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

Philadelphia Phillies
ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1

HOME

Detroit Tigers
ELO RATING1508
RANK#14
RECORD44-52
LAST 107-3
STREAKL2

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Detroit Tigers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 4 points plus home advantage at Comerica Park produces the 53.1% call. Full methodology →