Orlando City SC at San Jose Earthquakes Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

ORL Orlando City SCAWAY · 1431 ELO

San Jose EarthquakesHOME · 1596 ELO SJ

21.5% WIN PROBABILITY 78.5%

The model makes San Jose Earthquakes a 78.5% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 78.5% edge still loses 21.5 times in 100.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

78.5% San Jose Earthquakes OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 165 points at open.

The factors

CONTEXT ONLY

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

78°F DEW 57°F HUM 49% WIND 5 MPH CLOUD 0% 1013 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

ORL REST 59D SJ REST 59D ORL TRAVELED 2020 MI ORL CROSSED 2 TIME ZONES

The numbers

AWAY

Orlando City SC

ELO RATING1431

RANK#28

RECORD4-2-9

LAST 103-2-5

STREAKL1

HOME

San Jose Earthquakes

ELO RATING1596

RANK#3

RECORD10-2-3

LAST 106-2-2

STREAKW1

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with San Jose Earthquakes getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 165 points plus home advantage at PayPal Park produces the 78.5% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

Orlando City SC are 3-2-5 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.