PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 12, 2026 ✗ RESULT

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Washington, DC

THE CALL — GRADED

NYY New York YankeesAWAY · 1524 ELO
@
Washington NationalsHOME · 1496 ELO WSH
49.0% WIN PROBABILITY 51.0%

Final: New York Yankees 5, Washington Nationals 3. The Call had Washington Nationals at 51.0% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
New York Yankees581
Washington Nationals360
W Ryan Yarbrough L Andrew Alvarez SV Paul Blackburn

Prediction history

4 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

51.0% Washington Nationals ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
50.3% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.1% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.9% Washington Nationals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

New York Yankees
ELO RATING1524
RANK#6
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4

HOME

Washington Nationals
ELO RATING1496
RANK#19
RECORD48-49
LAST 104-6
STREAKL3

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Washington Nationals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 28 points plus home advantage at Nationals Park produces the 51.0% call. Full methodology →