PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 11, 2026 ✓ RESULT

New York Yankees at Washington Nationals

Nationals Park · Washington, DC

THE CALL — GRADED

NYY New York YankeesAWAY · 1524 ELO
@
Washington NationalsHOME · 1496 ELO WSH
51.8% WIN PROBABILITY 48.2%

Final: New York Yankees 4, Washington Nationals 2. The Call had New York Yankees at 51.8% — called it. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
New York Yankees490
Washington Nationals270
W Brent Headrick L Clayton Beeter SV David Bednar

Prediction history

5 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

51.8% New York Yankees ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.3% New York Yankees ▲ +0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
52.2% New York Yankees ▲ +3.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
51.1% Washington Nationals ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
51.9% Washington Nationals OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

New York Yankees
ELO RATING1524
RANK#6
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW4

HOME

Washington Nationals
ELO RATING1496
RANK#19
RECORD48-49
LAST 104-6
STREAKL3

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Washington Nationals getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 28 points plus home advantage at Nationals Park produces the 51.8% call. Full methodology →