New York Red Bulls at Philadelphia Union Prediction — July 22, 2026

THE PICK

RBNY New York Red BullsAWAY · 1480 ELO

Philadelphia UnionHOME · 1423 ELO PHI

50.0% WIN PROBABILITY 50.0%

The model makes Philadelphia Union a 50.0% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 50.0% edge still loses 50.0 times in 100.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

50.0% Philadelphia Union OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 57 points at open.

The factors

1 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · NIGHT GAME

81°F DEW 60°F HUM 50% WIND 8 MPH GUSTS 21 MPH CLOUD 8% RAIN 34% 1006 hPa

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

RBNY REST 59D PHI REST 58D RBNY TRAVELED 1037 MI RBNY CROSSED 1 TIME ZONE DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

IN THE NUMBER

REST -3 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

New York Red Bulls

ELO RATING1480

RANK#21

RECORD6-4-5

LAST 104-3-3

STREAKW1

HOME

Philadelphia Union

ELO RATING1423

RANK#29

RECORD1-4-10

LAST 101-4-5

STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLS result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Philadelphia Union getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 57 points plus home advantage at Subaru Park produces the 50.0% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

New York Red Bulls come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in. This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Lineup rotation, travel legs, and a single set piece move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.