THE PICK
NYM New York MetsAWAY · 1465 ELO
@ Philadelphia PhilliesHOME · 1512 ELO PHI
40.0% WIN PROBABILITY 60.0%
The model makes Philadelphia Phillies a 60.0% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 60.0% edge still loses 40.0 times in 100.
Prediction history
7 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
60.0% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -1.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
61.2% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.5% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.3% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.9% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.4% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.6% Philadelphia Phillies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 47 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Nolan McLean FIP 3.43 · ERA 3.52 · 107.1 IP
Alan Rangel FIP 4.39 · ERA 4.19 · 19.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
85°F DEW 53°F HUM 34% WIND 10 MPH CLOUD 0% 1011 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
NYM REST 0D PHI REST 0D NYM TRAVELED 0 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
The numbers
AWAY
New York Mets ELO RATING1465
RANK#26
RECORD41-57
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1
HOME
Philadelphia Phillies ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Philadelphia Phillies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 47 points plus home advantage at Citizens Bank Park produces
the 60.0% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
New York Mets come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.