THE PICK
NYM New York MetsAWAY · 1465 ELO
@ Philadelphia PhilliesHOME · 1512 ELO PHI
38.6% WIN PROBABILITY 61.4%
The model makes Philadelphia Phillies a 61.4% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 61.4% edge still loses 38.6 times in 100.
Prediction history
11 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
61.4% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +2.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.3% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -1.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.9% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -1.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
62.0% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +1.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.7% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
61.2% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.5% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.3% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.9% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.4% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.6% Philadelphia Phillies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 47 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Sean Manaea FIP 4.14 · ERA 4.56 · 75 IP
Jesús Luzardo FIP 2.84 · ERA 3.51 · 110.1 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
88°F DEW 70°F HUM 57% WIND 11 MPH CLOUD 80% RAIN 35% 1007 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
NYM REST 1D PHI REST 1D NYM TRAVELED 0 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +10 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
New York Mets ELO RATING1465
RANK#26
RECORD41-57
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1
HOME
Philadelphia Phillies ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Philadelphia Phillies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 47 points plus home advantage at Citizens Bank Park produces
the 61.4% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
New York Mets come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.