PLAYOFFHOTELS
MLB · JULY 16, 2026 ✗ RESULT

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, PA

THE CALL — GRADED

NYM New York MetsAWAY · 1465 ELO
@
Philadelphia PhilliesHOME · 1512 ELO PHI
39.4% WIN PROBABILITY 60.6%

Final: New York Mets 4, Philadelphia Phillies 1. The Call had Philadelphia Phillies at 60.6% — the upset landed. Every miss stays on the record. Season record: 39–28.

The box

RHE
New York Mets471
Philadelphia Phillies141
W Christian Scott L Aaron Nola SV Devin Williams

Prediction history

9 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

60.6% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
61.2% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.3% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.9
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
61.2% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.5% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
60.3% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.9% Philadelphia Phillies ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.4% Philadelphia Phillies ▼ -0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
59.6% Philadelphia Phillies OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 47 points at open.

The numbers

AWAY

New York Mets
ELO RATING1465
RANK#26
RECORD41-57
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1

HOME

Philadelphia Phillies
ELO RATING1512
RANK#11
RECORD54-44
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1

Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Philadelphia Phillies getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 47 points plus home advantage at Citizens Bank Park produces the 60.6% call. Full methodology →