THE PICK
NYM New York MetsAWAY · 1465 ELO
@ Milwaukee BrewersHOME · 1559 ELO MIL
33.6% WIN PROBABILITY 66.4%
The model makes Milwaukee Brewers a 66.4% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 66.4% edge still loses 33.6 times in 100.
Prediction history
10 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
66.4% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
65.7% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.4% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.9% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.3% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.9% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
66.7% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.8
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
67.5% Milwaukee Brewers ▲ +0.2
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
67.3% Milwaukee Brewers ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
67.6% Milwaukee Brewers OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 94 points at open.
The factors
CONTEXT ONLY Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · RETRACTABLE ROOF · NIGHT GAME
73°F DEW 56°F HUM 55% WIND 11 MPH GUSTS 24 MPH CLOUD 100% 985 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
NYM REST 0D MIL REST 0D NYM TRAVELED 0 MI
The numbers
AWAY
New York Mets ELO RATING1465
RANK#26
RECORD41-57
LAST 105-5
STREAKW1
HOME
Milwaukee Brewers ELO RATING1559
RANK#1
RECORD59-37
LAST 105-5
STREAKL3
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Milwaukee Brewers getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 94 points plus home advantage at American Family Field produces
the 66.4% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
New York Mets come in hot on a 1-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.