PLAYOFFHOTELS
WNBA · JULY 18, 2026 ● LIVE

New York Liberty at Indiana Fever

Gainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis, IN

THE PICK

NY New York LibertyAWAY · 1556 ELO
@
Indiana FeverHOME · 1595 ELO IND
35.8% WIN PROBABILITY 64.2%

The model makes Indiana Fever a 64.2% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 64.2% edge still loses 35.8 times in 100.

Prediction history

6 UPDATES

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

64.2% Indiana Fever ▼ -4.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
68.8% Indiana Fever ▲ +9.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
59.4% Indiana Fever ▲ +3.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.3% Indiana Fever ▲ +1.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
54.6% Indiana Fever ▼ -2.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
OPEN
57.2% Indiana Fever OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 39 points at open.

The factors

2 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS

INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

NY REST 1D IND REST 0D NY TRAVELED 779 MI DIVISIONAL MATCHUP

AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER

NY Satou Sabally OUTRebecca Allen DAY-TO-DAYPauline Astier DAY-TO-DAYLeonie Fiebich OUT
IND Caitlin Clark OUT

IN THE NUMBER

REST -3 ELOB2B -15 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

New York Liberty
ELO RATING1556
RANK#5
RECORD15-12
LAST 103-7
STREAKL3

HOME

Indiana Fever
ELO RATING1595
RANK#4
RECORD15-11
LAST 105-5
STREAKL1

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Indiana Fever getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 39 points plus home advantage at Gainbridge Fieldhouse produces the 64.2% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

New York Liberty are 3-7 over their last ten. The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.