New York Liberty at Dallas Wings Prediction — July 20, 2026

THE PICK

NY New York LibertyAWAY · 1556 ELO

Dallas WingsHOME · 1686 ELO DAL

24.8% WIN PROBABILITY 75.2%

The model makes Dallas Wings a 75.2% favorite — home advantage included. One game is one game: a 75.2% edge still loses 24.8 times in 100.

Prediction history

1 UPDATE

Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.

OPEN

75.2% Dallas Wings OPENING LINE

First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 130 points at open.

The factors

2 IN THE NUMBER

Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.

GAME-TIME CONDITIONS

INDOORS — WEATHER OFF THE BOARD

SCHEDULE & TRAVEL

NY REST 1D DAL REST 0D NY TRAVELED 779 MI

AVAILABILITY CONTEXT ONLY — NOT IN THE NUMBER

NY Satou Sabally OUTRebecca Allen DAY-TO-DAYPauline Astier DAY-TO-DAYLeonie Fiebich OUT

DAL Costanza Verona OUTHaley Jones OUT

IN THE NUMBER

REST -3 ELOB2B -15 ELO

The numbers

AWAY

New York Liberty

ELO RATING1556

RANK#5

RECORD15-12

LAST 103-7

STREAKL3

HOME

Dallas Wings

ELO RATING1686

RANK#3

RECORD18-8

LAST 107-3

STREAKW5

Ratings come from every WNBA result this season — updated daily, weighted by margin of victory, with Dallas Wings getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference of 130 points plus home advantage at College Park Center produces the 75.2% call. Full methodology →

What could break the pick

New York Liberty are 3-7 over their last ten. Even strong favorites lose outright about once in three tries at this probability. Starting lineups, rotation minutes, and rest move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.