THE PICK
MIN Minnesota TwinsAWAY · 1499 ELO
@ Chicago CubsHOME · 1527 ELO CHC
42.0% WIN PROBABILITY 58.0%
The model makes Chicago Cubs a 58.0% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 58.0% edge still loses 42.0 times in 100.
Prediction history
8 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
58.0% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.5% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.8% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.3% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.8% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.1
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.9% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.2% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.6% Chicago Cubs OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.
The factors
1 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Zebby Matthews FIP 5.10 · ERA 4.57 · 67 IP
Shota Imanaga FIP 4.64 · ERA 4.17 · 108 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
77°F DEW 59°F HUM 54% WIND 8 MPH CLOUD 1% 994 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
MIN REST 0D CHC REST 0D MIN TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
PITCH +4 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Minnesota Twins ELO RATING1499
RANK#18
RECORD48-49
LAST 107-3
STREAKW2
HOME
Chicago Cubs ELO RATING1527
RANK#5
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW2
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Chicago Cubs getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 28 points plus home advantage at Wrigley Field produces
the 58.0% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Minnesota Twins come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
The edge is real but modest; single-game variance eats edges like this regularly. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.