THE PICK
MIN Minnesota TwinsAWAY · 1499 ELO
@ Chicago CubsHOME · 1527 ELO CHC
42.8% WIN PROBABILITY 57.2%
The model makes Chicago Cubs a 57.2% favorite — home advantage included.
One game is one game: a 57.2% edge still loses 42.8 times in 100.
Prediction history
16 UPDATES Every time the model moved this pick — logged in full. It updates until 15 minutes before gametime, then locks.
57.2% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.7
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.9% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.5% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.0% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.5% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.0% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.5% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.8% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.5
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.3% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.9% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.3
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.2% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.6% Chicago Cubs ▲ +0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.2% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
56.6% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.6
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.2% Chicago Cubs ▼ -0.4
Ratings shifted on the latest results run.
57.6% Chicago Cubs OPENING LINE
First model run when the matchup posted. Elo gap of 28 points at open.
The factors
2 IN THE NUMBER Everything the model sees for this game. Only backtest-validated signals move the probability — the rest is context, shown anyway.
PROBABLE STARTERS
Taj Bradley FIP 3.93 · ERA 3.59 · 102.2 IP
Matthew Boyd FIP 3.58 · ERA 4.50 · 46 IP
GAME-TIME CONDITIONS · DAY GAME
91°F DEW 69°F HUM 49% WIND 17 MPH GUSTS 26 MPH CLOUD 61% RAIN 26% 988 hPa
SCHEDULE & TRAVEL
MIN REST 0D CHC REST 0D MIN TRAVELED 0 MI INTERLEAGUE
IN THE NUMBER
WXWIND VARIANCEPITCH +3 ELO
The numbers
AWAY
Minnesota Twins ELO RATING1499
RANK#18
RECORD48-49
LAST 107-3
STREAKW2
HOME
Chicago Cubs ELO RATING1527
RANK#5
RECORD54-42
LAST 106-4
STREAKW2
Ratings come from every MLB result this season — updated daily, weighted by
margin of victory, with Chicago Cubs getting the standard home bump. An Elo difference
of 28 points plus home advantage at Wrigley Field produces
the 57.2% call. Full methodology →
What could break the pick
Minnesota Twins come in hot on a 2-game win streak — recent form the season-long rating hasn't fully priced in.
This is a coin-flip game — the model calls it a lean, not a lock. Starting pitchers, lineup cards, and bullpen usage move real outcomes in ways a rating system can’t see.